The model has been stable so far but can it continue? Studies project that by 2050, the UAE will be made up of only 4% citizens, and 96% non-citizens – which by then would include third and fourth-generation immigrants. The current regime cannot subsume such a big and diverse population as citizens without serious social, cultural, and political transformation; it cannot make up the difference via natural birth; it cannot "deport" nine-tenth of its population; and it cannot continue down the path of "demographic imbalance" without something or the other giving way. How sustainable is a country in which only 4% of the population are citizens?
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What's most alarming about this picture, though, is that it is not debated in the UAE at all – the most serious problem is that nobody is talking about the problem. Since the start of the Arab Spring (whose fifth anniversary we just observed), the government's decision making seems to have been hijacked towards an autocratic, counter-revolutionary, nearly paranoid bent.
Its attention is committed outwards towards foreign intervention, and inwards towards shutting the space for debate and free speech. Without dissent, the country has no internal resistance to bad decision making. The ever-tighter sovereign leadership circle has chosen a familiar policy of unapologetic severity towards dissidents, coupled with the promotion of a closed nationalistic chauvinism, buoyed by the country's recent foreign military adventurism.
Today, in the UAE, dissent is punished as treason, and potential dissenters are mistrusted or pre-emptively expelled. The country I grew up in was home to a proud, optimistic, dynamic society but today, much of its population are silenced into a resigned acquiescence, and wonder only privately where the country may be heading. Many are oblivious to the threats, caught up in the rush of their daily lives. It's abnormal how normal life looks under these conditions.
Some non-citizen families have "emergency packs" ready in case a "deportation" order comes along; others are pondering emigration. But many are caught up in the rat race, trying to get ahead in one of the most dynamic economies and societies in the region. Others find solace in consumerism, or find escape in entertainment or in art and literature.
Poignantly enough, I could have never written this article had I not been summarily expelled from the UAE in April 2014, against the background of my Arab Spring activism. The government did not need to produce any charges against me – as a non-citizen native, I was "temporary" anyway. I am a product of the United Arab Emirates, and everything that I am was made there. I cannot find words to express how much I love it, how much I miss it, and how grateful I am to its society and its human saga for contributing to making me the man I am today.
The UAE to me was not a "port" to be "deported" from – it was my country, my home, the only home I ever knew. I worry for my first home – for the most successful and inspiring modern Arab story. The UAE is worth saving – but it would take the courage of dissent to make a difference before it's too late. If you really love your country, then dare to dissent for its sake. God bless the UAE.
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